The ultimate guide to decision-making: a managerial approach
Updated: Oct 15, 2021
As a marketer, I’ve always been attracted by the psychological aspects that influence people in decision-making.
They help me understand what happens in a prospect’s mind when they are deciding whether to buy a product or service and guide me to make effective strategic decisions.
If you want to learn how to effectively evaluate alternatives, discover what disruptive elements come into play during the decision-making process and the best tools to use, then keep reading my guide!
Table of contents
THE DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK
Decision-making is the process which enables people to make a decision between two or more alternatives. The outcome of each alternative is associated with an expected value and a certain degree of uncertainty.
Due to this uncertainty, the decision-making process requires great attention in evaluating the alternatives.
The triangle below represents the three components of decision-making.
The new rational manager: an updated edition for a new world, published in 1997 by Charles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe, shows how problem management should be carried out before making a decision. The information gathered in this phase can be used to perform decision analysis.
Instead, evaluating risk is necessary for future objectives or strategies.
For definition, a decision regards an action that still has to happen. That’s why decision-making needs a risk analysis of the alternatives.
Defining decision analysis
Decision analysis is a process to determine the pros and cons of all possible outcomes.
Decision analysis requires a finite number of alternatives. Sometimes, the less information, the better.
As Robert Duncan explains in his work, Characteristics of organizational environments and perceived environment uncertainty published in 1972 by Administrative Science Quarterly, a decision maker seeks information to reduce or eliminate risk (uncertainty).
On the other hand, information overload occurs every time there is a gap between volume of information and assimilation capacity. In 2007, Monash Business Review issued Decision-making: too much info! by Ambalika D. Kutty, Himanshu Kumar Shee and R.D. Pathak who explained how excessive information can negatively affect decision-making.
A simplified step-by-step process to decision analysis should be:
Listing all the possible alternatives;
Setting the parameters to evaluate each alternative;
Reordering or prioritizing the alternatives according to the degree of attractiveness set by the decision maker;
Making a final decision.
The last step may sound obvious, but analysis paralysis is very common in organizations. Over-analyzing or over-thinking a situation paralyze the outcome, since a decision is never made.
7 steps of the decision-making process
According to the two experienced business managers and educators Phil Higson and Anthony Sturgess, who published Uncommon leadership: how to build competitive advantage by thinking differently in 2014, the decision-making process can be divided into 7 steps.
A structured decision-making model, based on a rationalistic approach, can be made by 7 steps:
Identify the decision. The first step is realizing what decision you need to make and its nature;
Gather information. Get relevant information and insights about your decision: what’s relevant and what’s not? Who can influence the final event?;
Identify the alternatives. What different courses of action do you have? What different data interpretations may be possible?;
Weight the evidence. Based on the intel you have, list the pros and cons of each alternative and imagine its final outcome. Then, order the alternatives according your specific value system;
Choose among alternatives;
Review the decision and its consequences. Has the outcome satisfied the need in step one? You may want to review the previous steps and acquire more info on your options, add additional details and explore other alternatives.
The 7 steps of the decision-making process is an example of rational decision-making model. It brings logic and order to decision-making and consists of a series of steps which start by identifying a problem or opportunity and end with actions taken upon guided decisions.
What are the benefits in using a rational decision-making model?
In 2002, the professor of management Paul C. Nutt at Ohio State University published Why decisions fail: avoiding the blunders and traps that lead to debacles, a study based on over 400 strategic decisions made by top managers of different organizations.
His analysis revealed that 2/3 of all decisions are based on error-prone or controversial tactics. He said that:
[Managers] believe that following recommended decision-making practices would take too much time and demand excessive cash outlays.
He identified three main blunders:
Rush to judgment occurs when managers find an issue and patch it up with the first solution that they come across. They fear to leave concerns unanswered and feel the pressure from colleagues and supervisors;
Misuse of resources happens when decision makers spend money (sometimes millions of dollars) on an evaluation to support a hurried selected decision. They should also invest in other aspects of decision-making, like gathering information about the concern, set expectations and find who may stop action;
Failure-prone tactics occur every time a manager approaches decision-making with a wrong methodology. Nutt highlighted how critical participation is: decisions with a prior participative phase grants over 80% of success. He revealed that only 1/5 of the decisions are founded on participation.
Following good decision-making practices actually costs very little, especially when you compare it to the costs of dealing with the consequences of a debacle.
Defining problem management
Problem management is a process which takes care of the life-cycle of every problem in an organization.